A cheap option on a real shortage.
On today's evidence Hangar Row is a thin-margin, eight-year development business with personal guarantees, not an outsized-return machine. It becomes attractive only if specific gates clear. The plan is to spend about $55k finding out before spending more.
Concept stage. No customers, sponsors, lenders, partners or investors are signed or committed. All figures are projections from the plan's monthly model. This page is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.
Headline numbers (projection, founder level, 3 phases)
| Base (today) | Go case (gates met) | Go + deposits released | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 all-in cost | $179.7/sf | $166.5/sf | $166.5/sf |
| Blended list price | $218/sf | $230/sf | $230/sf |
| Phase 1 margin on cost (sold units, after 6% selling) | 10.8% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Founder pre-tax multiple / IRR | 0.97x / -1% | 1.66x / 20% | 2.09x / 32% |
| Founder after-tax multiple / IRR (40% dealer income) | 0.97x / -1% | 1.40x / 14% | 1.65x / 23% |
| Founder net profit, pre-tax | -$0.12M | $2.89M | $4.61M |
| Founder peak cash | $3.47M | $2.32M | $2.09M |
| Peak construction debt personally guaranteed | $6.87M | $6.37M | $6.37M |
| First unit closings | Month 44 | Month 44 | Month 44 |
| W-2 employees | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Founder multiple = gross positive flows divided by gross negative flows over the life of the plan. Base inputs: hard cost $135/sf, $218/sf blended price, deposits escrowed. Go case requires a GMP at or under $125/sf hard and closed comparable sales supporting $230/sf or more.
Returns scenarios
Founder cash flow and cumulative position
Guaranteed construction debt by year
Bear: base with prices -10%, cost +10%, 26-month entitlement, spec units at -15% over 18 months, 2 phases. Bull: go case plus deposits released, a 12-month entitlement, a 6.5% exit cap and a fourth phase. Projection; tax on losses shown as zero.
Use of funds, staged and gated
Money goes in only as each gate clears. The first $55k buys answers, not buildings.
| When | Amount | Use | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days 1-30 | ~$15k | Validation sprint: counsel opinion, closed comps, qualified-owner count, rent survey, 3 sponsor calls, 1 JV call | At risk |
| Months 1-3 | ~$40k | 90-day screen: sponsor visits, two GMP budgets, lender and partner term sheets, insurance and manager quotes | At risk |
| Months 4-31 | ~$0.95M | Pre-development (≤ $225k cap) and ground rent (~$0.27M together); dead pursuits, overhead, development manager (~$0.68M) | At risk, gated |
| Month 31 | ~$0.69M | Balance of founder cash at 10% of the phase budget, at loan close | Behind 60% presales, GMP, bonds |
| Peak | ~$2.3M | Go case (base: $3.5M), plus a guarantee on ~$6.4M of construction debt |
Phase 1 capital stack (go case)
Projection. Senior loan 65% LTC at 9% with a recourse completion guarantee; one institutional equity partner at a 10% compounding pref plus 30% of profit after the pref; founder cash 10% of budget. Buyer deposits (~$0.83-0.88M) stay in escrow.
Why it might still be worth the option
The shortage is documented
71% of GA airports report a shortage of individual GA hangars (AOPA survey via Aviation Week). Arizona sponsors are soliciting private capital: Chandler, Wickenburg, Buckeye, Lake Havasu and others.
Institutions are paying attention
Sky Harbour (NYSE: SKYH) reported 2025 revenue of $27.5M, up 87% (transcript). The plan does not count on such firms as exit buyers.
Low headcount by structure
One W-2 development manager from month 16. Owner's rep, broker, association manager, counsel and the GC are all contracted. Founder time is budgeted at ~25 h/week to the first loan close.
What we are honest about
- No recurring EBITDA and no platform exit premium. Returns come from development gain as each phase sells out.
- Personal recourse on $6-7M of construction debt per phase, capped at roughly one fully drawn loan at a time.
- Tier 2 rural pricing (~$160/sf) is a total loss in the model, so condo presales there are off the table.
- No track record in scored RFPs: Phase 1 runs as a JV with an experienced hangar builder, or via unsolicited proposals.
Institutional equity, JV builders, airport sponsors.
The plan uses one institutional equity partner per phase and never asks hangar buyers to invest. If that describes you, let's talk.
This page summarizes a planning document. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security. Any future offering would be made only to accredited investors under applicable exemptions, with verification, and only through definitive documents.